When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held during May.

The RBA’s May month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate change and an intact Quantitative Easing (QE). However, statements like “no rate hike until 2024” and doubts over inflation, as well as unemployment, weighed on the AUD/USD on the release. It should, however, be noted that the central bank’s signals to review monetary policy in July make today’s meeting minutes the key for AUD/USD traders.

TD Securities considers the event as having importance while saying,

The RBA's Minutes of the May meeting will be published. With the Bank publishing a new set of forecasts, we and the market will look for any shift in tone or bias that may provide a guide for how the Bank could act at its July meeting. The July meeting is when the Board will announce decisions on Yield Curve Control and QE.

Westpac is on the same line and said,

The RBA will publish the Minutes of the May Board Meeting. The focus will be on commentary around QE and Yield Curve Control, given that the Board will decide whether to extend these policies at the July meeting.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

Although inflation concerns are in fashion and test RBA hawks, signals of extended QE and no change in yield curve control measures can help AUD/USD to remain directed towards the 0.7820 resistance. It should, however, be noted that the policymakers’ view on the revised economic forecasts, published earlier in the month, will also be the key for the bulls as the wide difference could derail the optimism.

Technically, AUD/USD remains sideways unless crossing the 0.7820-0.7710 region. Wherein the multiple tops marked since January defines the range resistance while a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA portrays the 0.7720-10 support area.

Key Notes

AUD/USD stays directed towards 0.7820 hurdle, RBA minutes in focus 

AUD/USD Forecast: Neutral-to-bullish ahead of RBA Minutes

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.