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19 May 2014
EUR/USD around 1.33 in 12-month – J.P.Morgan Private Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sara Yates, Global Head of FX Strategy at J,P.Morgan Private Bank, keeps the target at 1.33 for the EUR/USD in a 12-month horizon.
Key Quotes
“In our opinion, EURUSD is unlikely to fall much below 1.35 unless the ECB does something to aggressively reverse its shrinking balance sheet and/or US 10y yields break above 3%”.
“We think there is some possibility that the ECB announces its intention to stops its drain of liquidity created by the Securities Market Programme (SMP) at the June meeting. However, we believe this would slow the speed at which the ECB’s balance sheet shrinks rather than increase it”.
“We think there remains too much political resistance to launch a quantitative easing programme (which would dramatically increase the size of the balance sheet) and that US yields are unlikely to move substantially higher until Q4 2014”.
“We continue to forecast EURUSD at 1.33 in 1 year”.
Key Quotes
“In our opinion, EURUSD is unlikely to fall much below 1.35 unless the ECB does something to aggressively reverse its shrinking balance sheet and/or US 10y yields break above 3%”.
“We think there is some possibility that the ECB announces its intention to stops its drain of liquidity created by the Securities Market Programme (SMP) at the June meeting. However, we believe this would slow the speed at which the ECB’s balance sheet shrinks rather than increase it”.
“We think there remains too much political resistance to launch a quantitative easing programme (which would dramatically increase the size of the balance sheet) and that US yields are unlikely to move substantially higher until Q4 2014”.
“We continue to forecast EURUSD at 1.33 in 1 year”.