RBNZ likely to cut the OCR in May - Westpac

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, suggests that they are expecting the RBNZ to cut the OCR at the May MPS as the central bank is particularly concerned about the global economy, and that won’t change by May.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday’s QSBO also supported the case for a cut.”

“Cutting the OCR will seem reasonable to the new Monetary Policy Committee, because inflation is struggling to reach two percent.”

“There is a risk of a follow-up cut in June or August. But we expect that improvements in the global and domestic economies will stay the RBNZ’s hand over the remainder of 2019.”

“We have long been concerned about the economic outlook in the early-2020s. We now expect the RBNZ to react to that by cutting the OCR in May 2020, taking the OCR to a new low of 1.25%.”