Oil: Higher and higher? - Rabobank

Christian Lawrence, Senior Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that they still expect the 60-70 range to dominate price action for oil markets, the move in spot seen so far this year makes an average of USD 65/bbl unlikely and as a result they have revised up their forecast and they now expect an average of just over USD 68/bbl in 2018.

Key Quotes

“Our forecast for 2019 remains unchanged at USD 70/bbl.”

“A look at the daily chart of Brent oil prices shows that the uptrend that began at the end of 2017H1 remains firmly in place, although we did shift into a lower trend channel at the start of this year. From a short term perspective, the relative strength index’s recent break back into neutral territory from overbought points to a reversal in price action over the coming days. That said, with prices at the mercy of geopolitical headlines at the moment, we should take technical signals with a grain of salt at the moment.”