Goldman Sachs assesses a 1/4 chance of US recession over the next two years

Goldman Sachs’ economists out with a latest note on Monday, assessing the risk of a recession for the US.

Key Points:

We find that many pre-WW2 recessions originated in the financial sector, many post-WW2 recessions were caused by oil shocks and monetary policy tightening, and sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras.

Some common contributors to past recessions look less worrisome today.

The dominant cause of post-war US recessions-rapid rate hikes in response to high inflation, often boosted by oil shocks-is less threatening today due to the anchoring of inflation expectations and the rise of shale

GS assesses a 1/4 chance of recession over the next two years

Somewhat below the unconditional probability over two years of 1/3 since 1980