US: Market focus on Q4 GDP and consumer sentiment - BBH

Analysts at BBH note that today investors will receive the first estimate of US Q4 GDP and after yesterday's inventory and trade data, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate ticked up to 2.9% SAAR.  

Key Quotes

“The New York Fed tracker is at 2.1%, while the Bloomberg consensus is at 2.2%.  This compares with a 3.5% pace in Q3.  It is not just the pace, but the composition of growth changed.  There were a bit less consumption and a larger drag from the external sector.  The core PCE deflator may have eased to 1.3% from 1.7%.”

“Second, the University of Michigan provides its final consumer confidence reading for January and the results of its inflation expectations survey.  The preliminary report showed the 5-10 year inflation expectation at 2.5% vs., 2.3% in December.  The 12-month average is 2.5%, and the 24-month average is 2.6%.”