US: June NFP is expected to bounce back to 190k mark - Westpac

Research Team at Westpac, suggests that the US June NFP is expected to bounce back to 190k mark while the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.7%.

Key Quotes

“Nonfarm payrolls surprised with a particularly weak outcome in May, a jobs gain of just 38k. Adding to the downbeat news was a further 59k in downward revisions to the prior two months.

As such, the 3-month average pace of gain slowed to 116k. That compares to an average of 201k in January/February, and 229k throughout 2015.

Come June, a bounce is anticipated, albeit not quite back to the prior-period averages. While the Verizon strike has ended, job creation has obviously slowed. A gain of around 190k seems most probable. Upward revisions are possible though.

The unemployment rate has been shocked by a short-lived rise in participation over the past eight months. Stability is likely come June, with job gains offsetting any labour force rise.”