Oil inter-markets: directionless around $49.00 region, awaits fresh impetus

Despite of a broadly weaker US Dollar, as measured by the US Dollar index, WTI crude oil prices have struggled for a firm direction on Monday and remained stuck around $49.00/barrel mark. 

On Friday, the black gold witnessed a late surge and was supported by rise in US long-term (30-years) treasury yields, supporting the risk-on sentiment, and broad based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar. Improvement in global risk sentiment was further reinforced by fall in the Volatility Index (VIX) that was seen boosting riskier assets - like equity markets (S&P 500) and commodities, including oil.

On Monday, markets are witnessing subdued trading action on the back of a US holiday in observance of Independence Day. With other intrinsic (like S&P 500, VIX and US 3-yr treasury yields) failing to provide any cues, oil prices on Monday would continue to be driven by sentiment surrounding the greenback. A tepid recovery bounce in the US Dollar has acted as a key factor restricting the commodity to build on to its move above $49.00 handle. 

Going forward, investors will keep a close watch on this week's inventory data from API and EIA for immediate momentum play. Meanwhile, focus would be on this week's key releases that include - FOMC meeting minutes and US monthly jobs report, scheduled on Wednesday and Friday respectively, which would assist trader in determining the near-term direction for crude oil prices.