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5 Nov 2015
Bank of England first rate hike now expected in May - MUFG
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, analyzed the minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England that were released today after the central bank decided to left monetary policy unchanged.
Key Quotes:
“The immediate reaction to the BOE’s ‘Super Thursday’ has been dovish after the BOE cut its near-term inflation and growth projections and after the MPC voted for unchanged monetary policy with the vote at 8-1 with Ian McCafferty continuing to be the lone dissenter. This is probably the key initial factor that explains the market reaction with market participants speculating that the vote could have shifted at least to 7-2 and possibly 6-3.”
“But there can be no doubt that the QIR has put an end to any idea of a rate increase in February even if the Fed as expected raise rates in December. We moved our timing for the first rate increase by the BOE from February to May and while today’s QIR suggests a BOE not in a rush to act, we are assuming that come the February QIR, the concerns over the global economy will have eased somewhat.”
“We are sure the BOE also wanted to assess the performance of the pound in the wake of Fed action one way and ECB action the other way before being confident on signalling more imminent action. Pound selling is unlikely to prove lasting and a continued improvement in global financial market conditions should see EUR/GBP fall below the 0.7000 level by year-end as the ECB eases policy further in December.”
“Pound gains versus the dollar may prove more difficult over the short-term as UK rate expectations may be slow initially to bring current rate hike timing forward.”
Key Quotes:
“The immediate reaction to the BOE’s ‘Super Thursday’ has been dovish after the BOE cut its near-term inflation and growth projections and after the MPC voted for unchanged monetary policy with the vote at 8-1 with Ian McCafferty continuing to be the lone dissenter. This is probably the key initial factor that explains the market reaction with market participants speculating that the vote could have shifted at least to 7-2 and possibly 6-3.”
“But there can be no doubt that the QIR has put an end to any idea of a rate increase in February even if the Fed as expected raise rates in December. We moved our timing for the first rate increase by the BOE from February to May and while today’s QIR suggests a BOE not in a rush to act, we are assuming that come the February QIR, the concerns over the global economy will have eased somewhat.”
“We are sure the BOE also wanted to assess the performance of the pound in the wake of Fed action one way and ECB action the other way before being confident on signalling more imminent action. Pound selling is unlikely to prove lasting and a continued improvement in global financial market conditions should see EUR/GBP fall below the 0.7000 level by year-end as the ECB eases policy further in December.”
“Pound gains versus the dollar may prove more difficult over the short-term as UK rate expectations may be slow initially to bring current rate hike timing forward.”