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4 Jun 2015
US: A muted response for NFP? – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The BNP Paribas team uses their proprietary model to estimate that the US NFP might see a muted response by the markets, further forecasting a 240k gain in Friday’s payrolls.
Key Quotes
“The May non-farm payroll report (NFP) is released on Friday and our US economists are forecasting a 240,000 gain, above the 227,000 consensus estimate. A very strong NFP print is likely to lead to a bear steepening of the front end of the rates curve.”
“Our NFP model suggests a muted response to a near-consensus NFP print, but a bigger band of error around the 5y, as this is part of the curve most in play in recent months. We believe our core trades, PCA-weighted bullet-vs-barbell positions, should continue to perform well ahead of the NFP report.”
Key Quotes
“The May non-farm payroll report (NFP) is released on Friday and our US economists are forecasting a 240,000 gain, above the 227,000 consensus estimate. A very strong NFP print is likely to lead to a bear steepening of the front end of the rates curve.”
“Our NFP model suggests a muted response to a near-consensus NFP print, but a bigger band of error around the 5y, as this is part of the curve most in play in recent months. We believe our core trades, PCA-weighted bullet-vs-barbell positions, should continue to perform well ahead of the NFP report.”