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3 Apr 2015
EUR/USD might see more upside risks on soft US payrolls – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alan Ruskin, Macro strategist views that the thin trading conditions today means that a disappointing US NFP print might lead to further upside for EUR/USD than normal.
Key Quotes
“We have seen larger FX responses to upside than downside surprises. For this release the market will probably respond marginally more to upside surprises, but only if you believe the NFP median is 245K! If the median is taken as 225k the reaction would be symmetric.”
“Payrolls reactions are notoriously fickle on the day, with almost all the reaction happening in the first 5 minutes after release. Coming on Easter Friday, the immediate reaction will probably be exaggerated by thinner and less liquid markets.”
“There is some feeling that the EUR/USD may have more upside on weak data than it normally has, because there won’t be as many European corporates and real money sellers.”
Key Quotes
“We have seen larger FX responses to upside than downside surprises. For this release the market will probably respond marginally more to upside surprises, but only if you believe the NFP median is 245K! If the median is taken as 225k the reaction would be symmetric.”
“Payrolls reactions are notoriously fickle on the day, with almost all the reaction happening in the first 5 minutes after release. Coming on Easter Friday, the immediate reaction will probably be exaggerated by thinner and less liquid markets.”
“There is some feeling that the EUR/USD may have more upside on weak data than it normally has, because there won’t be as many European corporates and real money sellers.”