Back
3 Mar 2015
EUR/USD to strengthen to 1.16 by Q1 end before resuming lower – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Athanasios Vamvakidis of BofA-Merrill Lynch, shares the forecast for EUR/USD, expecting the stronger flows in Eurozone, improving EU data, and a uncertain Fed to boost the EUR by Q1, before the bearish tone resumes.
Key Quotes
“We expect EUR/USD to strengthen to 1.16 by the end of 1Q, eventually weakening to 1.10 by the end of 2015. We expect further EUR/USD weakness to 1.05 by the end of 2016.”
“As we remain bearish in the longer term, we will sell short-term EUR/USD rallies.”
“Our latest analysis is also bearish EUR against NOK and SEK”
“Although we expect the first Fed rate hike in September, a move in June would weaken the Euro sooner than we expect.”
“Failure to agree on a program in Greece by the end of June (not our baseline) could also weaken the Euro beyond our projections.”
“On the other hand, stronger equity flows into the Eurozone, a persistent improvement in Eurozone data, a Fed that is more concerned about low inflation and falling inflation expectations, and a decision by reserve managers to start diversifying again towards the Euro could lead to stronger EUR/USD than we expect.”
Key Quotes
“We expect EUR/USD to strengthen to 1.16 by the end of 1Q, eventually weakening to 1.10 by the end of 2015. We expect further EUR/USD weakness to 1.05 by the end of 2016.”
“As we remain bearish in the longer term, we will sell short-term EUR/USD rallies.”
“Our latest analysis is also bearish EUR against NOK and SEK”
“Although we expect the first Fed rate hike in September, a move in June would weaken the Euro sooner than we expect.”
“Failure to agree on a program in Greece by the end of June (not our baseline) could also weaken the Euro beyond our projections.”
“On the other hand, stronger equity flows into the Eurozone, a persistent improvement in Eurozone data, a Fed that is more concerned about low inflation and falling inflation expectations, and a decision by reserve managers to start diversifying again towards the Euro could lead to stronger EUR/USD than we expect.”