EUR/NOK needs US data turn to move back down – ING

Norges Bank is widely expected to raise rates by 25 bps. Economists at ING analyze NOK outlook ahead of the Interest Rate Decision.

NOK could receive some short-term support, but a longer recovery relies on external drivers

Norges Bank is widely expected to hike by 25 bps, in line with its August guidance. We don’t think policymakers will pre-commit to a November hike. However, there are good chances they will at least signal the risk of another rate increase via a revision of the rate projections.

The outcome should be broadly supportive for NOK, but we still think the Krone will respond primarily to US activity data and the general market environment moving ahead. 

In the near term, the 11.50 level in EUR/NOK may continue to be the gravity level.