US: NFP opens the door to large rate hikes – UOB

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviews the latest release of US Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of September.

Key Takeaways

“The US NFP again exceeded expectations, adding 263,000 jobs in Sep while the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 3.5% (from 3.7% in Aug) as labor force participation dipped while the unemployed numbers fell by 261,000 to 5.75 million. Wage growth continued at an expected pace of 0.3% m/m, 5.0% y/y (from 0.3% m/m, 5.2% y/y in Aug).”

“The Sep report pointed to continued hiring momentum and persistent above 5% wage growth in a tight labor market environment, bolstering the case for the Fed to hike rates by a 4th consecutive 75bps in the next Nov FOMC. Attention will now shift to various Fed senior officials speaking this week and Sep CPI (13 Oct), which will shape Fed expectations before Nov’s FOMC.”